基于灰色GM(1,1)模型和回归模型的建模原理,将两种模型进行拟合,建立了新的组合模型,并采用该模型对武器装备的故障进行预测。该组合模型充分利用了两种预测方法提供的信息,实现了两种模型之间功能和优势的互补,有效提高了预测精度。最后,以某型雷达发射机的等时距测量的输出电压为例估计系统的故障时间,并依此推断出该系统的故障发生时间。 Based on the modeling principle of gray GM (1,1) model and regression model, the two models are fitted and a new combination model is established. The model is used to predict the failure of weapon equipment. The combined model makes full use of the information provided by the two prediction methods, complements the functions and advantages between the two models, and effectively improves the prediction accuracy. Finally, an example is given to estimate the fault time of the system by taking the output voltage measured at the same time interval of a certain type of radar transmitter as an example to deduce the fault occurrence time of the system.