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[目的]分析24年来我国疟疾流行特征,探讨统计预测模型在疟疾防治中的应用。[方法]利用1984～2007年全国疟疾疫情报告,分析疟疾流行现状及变化规律;用灰色(1︰1)模型、三次指数平滑模型、ARIMA模型对发病率进行拟合及未来预测。[结果]1984～2007年,我国疟疾高发地区由中部转为南部,传播季节延长;1984～2000年发病率呈急速下降趋势,自2001年,疟疾发病率出现低水平回升;预测2009～2012年疟疾的发病率分别为4.40/10万、4.68/10万、4.98/10万、5.33/10万。[结论]1984～2007年,我国疟疾发病得到有效控制。目前我国疟疾发病呈现低水平波动并小幅度上升的特点,有暴发的潜在威胁,需加强传染源控制及监测、预防工作。
[Objective] To analyze the characteristics of malaria epidemic in China in 24 years and discuss the application of statistical prediction model in malaria control. [Method] The national epidemic situation of malaria from 1984 to 2007 was used to analyze the status and variation of malaria epidemic. The incidence of gray malaria (1︰1) model, three exponential smoothing model and ARIMA model were fitted and predicted in the future. [Results] From 1984 to 2007, the areas with high incidence of malaria in our country were switched from the central part to the southern part, and the season of transmission was extended. From 1984 to 2000, the incidence rate showed a rapid decrease. Since 2001, the incidence of malaria has rebounded at a low level. The incidence of malaria was 4.40 / 100,000, 4.68 / 100,000, 4.98 / 100,000, and 5.33 / 100,000 respectively. [Conclusion] From 1984 to 2007, the incidence of malaria in China was effectively controlled. At present, the incidence of malaria in our country shows the characteristics of low level fluctuation and small increase. There is a potential threat of outbreak and the control and monitoring and prevention of infectious diseases need to be strengthened.