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开展单季稻高低温致灾因子危险性分析,可为四川省单季稻生产防灾减灾提供理论支持.基于1981年-2012年四川省26个气象台站单季稻观测资料和逐日气象资料,利用水稻高、低温灾害指标,从灾害发生频率、次数和强度等方面定量分析了四川省单季稻生育期内高温和低温致灾因子的危险性.结果表明:1981年-2012年四川省单季稻秧田期低温和灌浆结实期高温的发生频率较高,大部地区超过60%;秧田期低温和灌浆结实期高温的发生次数较多,大部地区在26~50次;秧田期低温和灌浆结实期高温的发生强度较高,大部地区分别为4~12天/次和6~9天/次.近30年来,四川省单季稻秧田期的低温发生次数和强度呈减少趋势;开花期高温发生次数基本不变,发生强度呈现降低趋势;灌浆结实期高温发生次数和强度呈增加趋势.四川省不同区域和不同生育阶段单季稻高温和低温致灾因子的危险性存在差异,需要因地制宜地应对气象灾害带来的不利影响,保障单季稻的安全生产.
To carry out the risk analysis of single and high temperature disaster risk factors for single cropping rice can provide theoretical support for disaster prevention and mitigation of single cropping rice in Sichuan Province.Based on the single cropping rice observation data and daily meteorological data of 26 meteorological stations in Sichuan from 1981 to 2012, Index, the risk of high temperature and low temperature hazard during the growth period of single cropping rice in Sichuan Province was quantitatively analyzed from the frequency, frequency and intensity of disasters.The results showed that the low temperature and the high temperature during the grain filling stage of single cropping rice in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012 The frequency of occurrence was higher than 60% in most areas. The occurrence of low temperature and high temperature during grain-filling stage were more frequent in the seedling stage, most of which ranged from 26 to 50 times. The occurrence of high temperature in low-temperature and grain- Most of the area were 4 ~ 12 days / times and 6 ~ 9 days / times.In recent 30 years, the number and intensity of low temperature in single-cropping rice seedling in Sichuan showed a decreasing trend; the occurrence frequency of high temperature in flowering stage remained unchanged and the occurrence intensity appeared Reduce the trend; the frequency and intensity of high temperature during grain filling stage tended to increase.The risk of high temperature and low temperature disaster-causing factors in single cropping rice in different regions and different growth stages in Sichuan Province Differences need to respond to local conditions brought about by the adverse effects of weather disasters, ensure safety in production of single cropping of rice.