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以产业结构为标准将我国28个主要省份进行区域划分,利用动态面板误差修正模型,实证分析了不同产业构成下经济增长与电力消费的因果关系。结果表明:从长期来看,我国整体存在电力消费与经济增长的协整关系,而且存在电力消费到经济增长的因果关系。但从短期来看,第二产业增加值占比较高的地区,存在电力消费与经济增长的双向因果关系;而第二产业增加值占比较低的地区,电力消费并不是经济增长的Granger原因,相反经济增长是电力消费的Granger原因。
Taking the industrial structure as the standard, we divide the 28 major provinces in our country into districts and make use of the dynamic panel error correction model to empirically analyze the causal relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption under different industries. The results show that in the long run, there is a cointegration relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China as a whole, and there is a causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. However, in the short term, there is a two-way causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in areas where the secondary industry accounts for a large proportion of the added value. Electricity consumption is not the Granger cause of economic growth in areas where the secondary industry accounts for a small proportion of the added value. Conversely, economic growth is the Granger cause of electricity consumption.