大麦是三熟制中的第一熟若能根据前期情况预报成熟期对合理安排品种茬口布局,缓和季节矛盾夺取粮食稳产高产将具有一定作用。本研究以市农科院和市郊1971～1981年分期播种和大田试验的早熟三号大麦平行观测资料,筛选出与关键生育期有密切关系的气候因子及播期因素,在定性预报抽穗期的基础上,作定量预报,最后建立成熟期的预报模式,预测1982年大麦成熟期,获得了较好的效果。 Barley is the first cooked three-pronged If the pre-mature state can predict the maturity of the reasonable arrangements for the layout of stubble crops to ease the contradictions of the season to seize stable and high yield of grain will play a role. In this study, the parallel observation data of the early maturing three barley sowed by the Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the suburbs from 1971 to 1981 in the suburbs screened climatic factors and sowing date closely related to the key growth stages. During the qualitative prediction of heading stage Based on the quantitative forecast, and finally establish a mature forecasting model to predict the maturity of 1982 barley, obtained good results.