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在由传统的计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的转轨中,市场在森林资源配置方面发挥愈来意重要的作用,因此研究我国木材供需情况尤为重要,在借鉴国内外木材市场供需预测的基础上,笔者提出采用线性差分方程进行木材需求预测。根据利益最大化原则,采用倒算法并建立相应模型,并考虑到实现林业可持续发展的要求,在木材供给预测中,采用国家补助作为一项重要因素。根据木材供需预测情况,可制定相应政策建议。
In the transition from the traditional planned economy to the socialist market economy, the market plays an increasingly important role in the allocation of forest resources. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the supply and demand of timber in China. Based on the supply and demand forecast of the domestic and international wood markets , I propose to use linear difference equation to predict timber demand. According to the principle of maximizing profits, the inverted algorithm is adopted and the corresponding model is established. In consideration of the requirement of realizing sustainable development of forestry, state subsidy is taken as an important factor in the forecast of timber supply. According to the timber supply and demand forecast, we can formulate the corresponding policy recommendations.