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四川省的耕地地力以土壤质量系数衡量,多数在0 70以下。按耕地最大生产潜力计算,以线性模型和指数模型预测耕地和人口,在2040年后,四川省的粮食产量与人口需求间将出现亏缺,预计分别缺口粮食523 7024×107kg和168 4425×107kg,那时四川将超载人口386 34万人至1201 20万人。按耕地现实粮食生产力(单产)计算的四川省耕地承载力,从2000年后,出现粮食缺口和人口超载。预计未来50年,粮食亏缺将在887 4259×107kg至2982 2803×107kg,人口超载达2035 4万人至6840 1万人。表明四川省的耕地超载,耕地粮食形势不容乐观。并依此提出了相应的对策和建议。
The cultivated land productivity in Sichuan Province is measured by the soil quality coefficient, mostly below 0 70. According to the maximum productive potential of arable land, using linear model and index model to predict the cultivated land and population, after 2040, there will be a deficit between grain output and population demand in Sichuan Province. It is expected that the grain deficit will be 523 7024 × 107kg and 168 4425 × 107kg respectively When Sichuan would overload the population of 3.86 million to 12.01 million. According to the actual cultivated land productivity (yield) of cultivated land carrying capacity in Sichuan Province, since 2000, food shortages and population overload have emerged. It is estimated that in the next 50 years, the food deficit will be 887 4259 107kg to 2982 2803 107kg, with a population overloading of 2035.4 million to 68401 million. This shows that the arable land in Sichuan Province is overloaded and the grain situation in cultivated land is not optimistic. And accordingly put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.