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藏东南地区气候环境复杂,地质条件恶劣,堆积体斜坡广为分布,易在多种极端条件诱发下失稳,具有较大的潜在风险。提出一种能够考虑多种诱发因素耦合作用的滑坡危险性评价方法。以地震和降雨为例,分别考虑了诱发因素自身的随机性与诱发作用的不确定性,通过分析不同危险性量级诱发事件的发生概率与回归周期,结合蒙特卡洛模拟计算对应诱发作用下的斜坡失稳概率,揭示不同程度的危险性序列。在此基础上利用全概率公式进行多致灾因素的耦合计算,系统评价堆积体斜坡的危险性与潜在风险。并以川藏交通廊道沿线某典型堆积体斜坡为算例,结果表明:耦合计算结果为中等危险等级,总的规律表现为诱发事件组合越极端,其综合危险性反而越低。此耦合结果能够得提供更为全面的参考与指导。
In the southeastern Tibet area, the climatic and environmental conditions are complex and the geological conditions are poor. The slopes of the deposits are widely distributed and prone to instability induced by various extreme conditions, with great potential risks. A landslide risk assessment method that can consider the coupling effect of various inducing factors is proposed. Taking earthquakes and rainfall as examples, we consider the randomness and inducing uncertainty of the inducing factors respectively. By analyzing the occurrence probability and regression period of the inducing events of different risk levels, the corresponding evoked effects are calculated by Monte Carlo simulations The slope of the probability of failure to reveal different degrees of danger sequence. On this basis, the full probability formula is used to calculate the coupling factors of multiple hazards, and the risk and potential risk of the slope of the deposit are systematically evaluated. The results show that the coupling calculation results are of medium risk level, and the general rule is that the more evoked event combinations are, the lower the comprehensive risk is. This coupling results can provide a more comprehensive reference and guidance.