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目的评估2017年1月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计2017年1月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较2016年12月有所下降,事件类别主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻等传染病事件为主。近期我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,不排除出现H7N9禽流感聚集性病例以及人感染其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的可能。流行性感冒、水痘、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。病毒性腹泻暴发疫情将持续发生,且诺如病毒仍将为主要致病原。寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险持续存在,输入后在南方蚊媒条件适宜的地区仍有引发本地传播的风险,但导致大规模本地传播的风险极低。中东呼吸综合征从沙特等中东国家输入我国的风险持续存在,但导致大规模疫情的风险低。因燃煤取暖导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件正处于高发时段。结论 2017年1月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较少的月份之一;需关注人感染禽流感、流行性感冒、病毒性腹泻、寨卡病毒病、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in January 2017 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the monitoring data of recent infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the previous public health emergencies and the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases, it is estimated that the number of nationally reported cases and cases in January 2017 will be up from that in December 2016 The incident category is mainly dominated by infectious diseases such as chickenpox, influenza, mumps and other infectious diarrhea that occur in schools. Recently, there will continue to be cases of human infection of H7N9 bird flu in mainland China, and the possibility of cases of H7N9 bird flu accumulation and human infection of other subtype avian influenza viruses may not be ruled out. Seasonal epidemics of respiratory infections such as influenza, chicken pox and mumps will occur. Outbreaks of viral diarrhea will continue to occur, and Norovirus will remain the major causative agent. The risk of Zika virus import into China persists. After the inputs, there is still a risk of causing local spread in areas with suitable mosquito vectors in the South, but the risk of causing large-scale local spread is extremely low. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome The risk of entering our country from Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia persists, but the risk of causing large-scale outbreaks is low. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating is at a high incidence. Conclusion In January 2017, the epidemic situation of public health emergencies and infectious diseases in our country is similar to that in previous years. It will be one of the few months in which the number of public health emergency reports will be less in the whole year. We should pay attention to people infected with bird flu and influenza , Viral diarrhea, Zika virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome and other infectious diseases caused by public health risks.