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目的分析2008-2013年传染病自动预警信息系统在贵州省安顺市的运行情况,探讨如何通过监测预警信息做好传染病疫情的防控工作。方法利用Excel 2003软件进行统计、汇总,应用描述流行病学方法对所获资料进行统计分析。结果安顺市2008-2013年共接收了4059起传染病自动预警信息,覆盖了21个病种,初步判断为疑似事件的有393起,疑似事件率为9.68%,经专业人员现场核实为暴发的有59起,预警信号阳性预测值为1.45%。预警处置及时率为98.10%,不同预警方法的响应及时率不同,单病种预警响应及时率为91.45%;时间系列预警响应及时率为98.51%。结论安顺市传染病自动预警系统运行状况良好,能及时发出传染病聚集性病例的预警,对早期发现暴发疫情起到非常重要的作用,但预警信号阳性预测值较低,县区疾控机构预警响应及时率需要提高。
Objective To analyze the operation status of the automatic warning information system for infectious diseases in Anshun City of Guizhou Province during 2008-2013, and to explore ways to prevent and control the epidemic situation of infectious diseases by monitoring early warning information. Methods The Excel 2003 software was used for statistics and summary, and the descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data obtained. Results From 2008 to 2013, Anshun City received a total of 4059 automatic warning messages of infectious diseases covering 21 diseases. Initial suspicions were 393 suspects and 9.68% suspicious events, which were verified by field professionals as outbreaks There are 59, the positive predictive value of early warning signal is 1.45%. The pre-warning disposal and timely rate was 98.10%. The response rates and timely rates of different pre-warning methods were different. The pre-alarm response timeliness rate was 91.45%. The pre-alarm response timeliness rate was 98.51%. Conclusion The automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Anshun City is in good working condition and early warning of clustering cases of infectious diseases can be issued in time, which plays an important role in early detection of outbreaks. However, the positive predictive value of early warning signals is low, and the early warning of CDC Timeliness of response needs to be improved.