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本文选取1990～2009年的数据作为研究样本,基于VAR模型研究人民币汇率变动对江苏省出口结构的影响。从实证结果中看到,实际有效汇率的升值确实导致江苏省出口贸易结构的调整,并且有一定的滞后作用。其中,实际有效汇率对初级产品出口的影响不大,而对于劳动密集型产品出口会产生较大的负向作用,对于资本密集型产品出口则产生正向的积极作用。
This paper selects data from 1990 to 2009 as a research sample and studies the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the export structure of Jiangsu Province based on the VAR model. From the empirical results, it can be seen that the real effective exchange rate appreciation has indeed led to the adjustment of the export trade structure in Jiangsu Province and has a certain lagging effect. Among them, the real effective exchange rate has little effect on the export of primary products, but will have a greater negative effect on the export of labor-intensive products, and will have a positive and positive effect on the export of capital-intensive products.