近三年来,电大招生数量和在校生数量逐年锐减,一些分校,工作站学生少得无法组建教学班,人们在担心和思考着电大的发展前途。本文拟就此问题谈点认识。马克思主义认为,教育作为一种复杂的社会现象,其发生、发展是受多种因素制约的,其中最主要,最基本的是经济、政治、科学技术、文化背景和人口五大因素。广播电视大学作为一种具体教育形式,其发展前途除受上述五大因素制约外,自身建设状况亦是制约并决定其发展前途的重要因素。本文试根据对上述诸种因素的分析,对广播电视大学的长远发展前景和近期特别是“八五”期间的发展趋势加以探讨。 一、广播电视大学的长远发展前景 The past three years, the number of TVU students and the number of students dropped sharply year after year, some schools, workstations, students rarely have to set up teaching classes, people are worried about and thinking about the future development of TVU. This article intends to talk about this issue point of understanding. Marxism holds that education, as a complex social phenomenon, has its occurrence and development constrained by many factors. The most important and most fundamental of these are the five major elements of economy, politics, science and technology, cultural background and population. As a specific form of education, the future of RTVU is not only constrained by the above five major factors, but also its own construction status as an important factor that restricts and determines its future development. Based on the analysis of the above factors, this paper attempts to discuss the long-term development prospects of radio and television universities and the development trend of the recent, especially the “Eighth Five-Year Plan” period. First, the long-term development prospects of radio and television universities