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目的了解厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡与减寿情况及其变化趋势,为厦门市卵巢癌的综合防治工作提供数据参考。方法收集分析2003-2014年厦门市女性户籍居民卵巢癌死亡资料,计算死亡率、死亡率年均变化百分比、平均减寿年数(AYLL)等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和减寿情况进行预测。结果 2003-2014年厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡率为1.41/10万,年均上升5.31%,死亡率随年龄的升高而升高,死亡年龄中位数为60岁;卵巢癌死亡造成的AYLL为7.8年。GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL的预测值与实际值平均相对误差为2.41%和2.83%,预测2015-2017年女性卵巢癌所致死亡率和AYLL值有所上升。结论厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡率呈上升趋势,GM(1,1)模型可用于其死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来死亡年龄还有年轻化趋势,应重视卵巢癌的预防控制工作。
Objective To understand the status of death and longevity of ovarian cancer in Xiamen City and its changing trend and provide data reference for the comprehensive prevention and treatment of ovarian cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of ovarian cancer deaths of female residents in Xiamen City from 2003 to 2014 were collected and analyzed. The mortality, mortality rate, average years of life lost (AYLL) and other indicators were calculated. The mortality rate And life expectancy forecast. Results In 2003-2014, the death rate of ovarian cancer in Xiamen was 1.41 / lakh, with an average annual increase of 5.31%. The mortality rate increased with the increase of age, the median age at death was 60 years. The death rate of ovarian cancer caused by AYLL For 7.8 years. The average relative errors between GM (1,1) model predictive value and actual value of mortality and AYLL were 2.41% and 2.83%, respectively. The mortality and AYLL values of ovarian cancer in 2015-2017 were predicted to increase. Conclusion The mortality rate of female ovarian cancer in Xiamen City is on the rise. The GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the mortality and life expectancy of the female patients. The mortality and the future trend of younger people are expected to be younger. The prevention and control of ovarian cancer should be emphasized.