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政府通过增加负债刺激经济增长或者居民增加负债置换房地产市场的库存,可能都不是上策,因为它们很难带来可持续的增长。如果政府通过加杠杆来化解僵尸企业、确立市场制度,或者投资技术创新、克服基础设施瓶颈,会更有意义。中国的杠杆率到底高不高?高杠杆究竟会带来什么样的后果?怎样才能有效地去杠杆?第一,判断杠杆率高低,需要考虑金融结构和偿付能力等因素。看国际比较,中国的M2/GDP比非常高,非金融部门债务/GDP比稍偏
It may not be the best policy for the government to replace stocks in the real estate market by increasing its debt to boost economic growth or increasing its residents’ liabilities because they have a hard time bringing sustainable growth. It would make more sense for the government to dissolve zombie companies by adding leverage, establish a market system, or invest in technological innovations to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks. First, to determine the level of leverage, the need to consider the financial structure and solvency and other factors. Looking at international comparison, China’s M2 / GDP ratio is very high, non-financial sector debt / GDP ratio slightly