岁末年初,在经历了2012车市一整年的凄风苦雨之后,人们又开始急切地展望未来。2013市场会怎样?更远的明天中国汽车将向何处去?我注意到,诸如此类的问题很多,答案却很少。其实原因就在于中国汽车市场到了一个“变数”频出的时代。我甚至觉得这变数还不少。习惯了传统思维和方法预测来年,可能还真的说明不了未来。我只说两点变数。要看清变数,很重要一点要看市场格局由谁主导。过去,人们已经定型了的 At the end of the year, at the beginning of the year, after suffering from the sad year of 2012 auto market, people are eagerly looking forward to the future. What will happen to the market in 2013? Where will the Chinese cars go further tomorrow? I noticed that there are many such problems but few answers. In fact, the reason is that China’s auto market to a “variable ” frequency of the times. I even think that this variable is still a lot. Used to the traditional thinking and method of forecasting the coming year, may really not explain the future. I only say two variables. To see variables, it is important to see who the market structure dominated. In the past, people have stereotyped