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目的探讨浙江省丽水市手足口病发病流行病学特征,及时掌握手足口病疫情趋势。方法利用描述性流行病学方法进行流行病学分析、构建BP神经网络模型进行疫情预测。结果丽水市2007-2009年累计报告手足口病6139例,年均发病率为81.10/10万。2007-2009年不同年份间发病率差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。全市各县(市、区)均有发病。以丽水市经济较发达县(市、区)发病率最高,莲都区发病率最高,为596.80/10万。发病主要集中在5-10月,占80.38%。发病主要集中在5岁以下儿童,以散居及幼托儿童为主。2010年1-6月预测发病例数分别为17、17、20、100、181和679例。结论手足口病的发生存在明显时间、地区、性别、年龄差异,且疫情处于上升状态,2010年疫情趋势预测与2007-2009年年均发病水平基本一致。
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Lishui City, Zhejiang Province, and to grasp the trend of HFMD epidemics in time. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used for epidemiological analysis and BP neural network model was constructed for epidemic prediction. Results A total of 6139 HFMD cases were reported from 2007 to 2009 in Lishui City, with an average annual incidence of 81.10 / 100,000. The incidence of different years between 2007 and 2009 was statistically significant (P <0.01). The city counties (cities, districts) have morbidity. In Lishui City, the most economically developed counties (cities, districts) the highest incidence, the highest incidence of Liandu, 596.80 / 100000. The incidence mainly concentrated in May-October, accounting for 80.38%. The incidence mainly concentrated in children under the age of 5 to diaspora and child care-based children. The number of cases predicted for January-June 2010 were 17, 17, 20, 100, 181 and 679, respectively. Conclusion The occurrence of hand, foot and mouth disease has obvious time, region, sex and age difference, and the epidemic is on the rise. The epidemic trend forecast in 2010 is basically consistent with the average incidence in 2007-2009.