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掌握球果角胫象Shirahoshizo conifera Chao在云南潜在分布区,对了解其危害和防控具有重要的意义。本文利用球果角胫象的分布点数据和环境因子数据,通过Maxent生态位模型预测其在云南的潜在分布区。结果表明:球果角胫象的潜在分布区主要集中滇中地区;在ArcGIS中进行显示与风险等级划分,按栅格数值的大小将球果角胫象的适生范围分为4级,分级标准为:高适生区、中适生区、低适生区、非适生区,经ROC曲线分析法验证,Maxent生态位模型的AUC值为0.998,表明预测获得了较好的效果。
It is of great importance to understand the harm and prevention and control of Shirahoshizo conifera Chao, a potential distribution area in Yunnan. In this paper, we use the distribution model of environmental point data and environmental factor data to predict the potential distribution area in Yunnan by Maxent’s niche model. The results showed that the potential distribution area of coniferous horn was mainly located in central Yunnan province. In ArcGIS, the display and risk classification were divided into four grades according to the size of grid value, The standard is: high adaptive zone, moderate adaptive zone, low adaptive zone, and non-adaptive zone. The AUC value of Maxent’s niche model was 0.998 as verified by ROC curve analysis, indicating that the prediction has achieved good results.