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本文综述性地介绍了全球油气资源的预测结果及相关问题。随着研究的深入,相关的认识与结论在不断地变化:二战前多认为全球常规石油最终可采储量(URR)为20 000亿~30 000亿bbl;在20世纪50年代,较高的估算值为29 320亿~33 720亿bbl;到20世纪80年代,使用计算机模拟新方法获得的预测值达48 380亿bbl;美国地质调查局2012年预测的全球(美国除外)石油和天然气的待发现资源量分别为5 650亿bbl和10 090亿boe,分别较2000年评估值减少了13%和增加了30%,储量增长量分别为6 650亿bbl和2 570亿boe,分别较2000年评估值增加了9%和减少了53%,为其对过去预测结果的修正,反映全球油气后备资源量的减少。全球油气资源在空间上分布极不均衡,主要集中在中东与北非、前苏联与北冰洋、撒哈拉以南非洲及南美和加勒比海地区。中国油气资源很有限,应节约并高效使用油气资源,加快能源结构调整和优化。
This article presents a summary of the global oil and gas resource forecasts and related issues. With the deepening of the research, relevant cognitions and conclusions are constantly changing: before World War II, the world’s final conventional recoverable reserves of crude oil (URR) are estimated at 200 billion to 3 billion bbl; in the 1950s, higher estimates With a predicted value of 483.8 billion bbl by the new method of computer simulation by the 1980s; global (excluding the United States) oil and natural gas forecast by the United States Geological Survey in 2012 The inventories were 565 billion bbl and 10.9 billion boe, respectively, a 13% decrease and an increase of 30% over the assessment of 2000. The increase in reserves was 665 billion bbl and 270.7 billion boe, respectively, compared with 2000 The appraised value increased by 9% and decreased by 53%, amending its past forecast result to reflect the reduction of the global oil and gas reserve resources. Global oil and gas resources are highly unevenly distributed in space, mainly in the Middle East and North Africa, the former Soviet Union and Arctic Ocean, sub-Saharan Africa and South America and the Caribbean. China’s oil and gas resources are limited, and oil and gas resources should be economically and efficiently used to speed up the adjustment and optimization of energy structure.