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本文从最终消费的角度来计量CO2排放,其中包括最终消费导致的直接排放和间接排放,本文把单位最终消费导致的CO2排放量称为完全CO2排放系数。计算完全CO2排放系数的传统方法是使用单位产品的直接CO2排放系数乘以里昂惕夫逆矩阵。这种方法的主要问题包括:一要确保矩阵可逆且逆矩阵系数非负;二缺乏统计属性,无法进行参数检验和区间估计。所以,本文利用随机投入产出模型,采用产出表和使用表的数据代替对称的投入产出表的数据,计算得到了我国2007年产品部门的完全CO2排放系数的无偏估计,并得到排放系数的置信区间。并与传统方法计算的系数进行了比较,传统方法计算的系数存在较小的高估。接着,文章又利用随机投入产出模型计算了我国对国外CO2排放的影响程度,结果表明我国对国外的CO2排放的影响较小。
This paper measures CO2 emissions from the perspective of final consumption, including direct and indirect emissions resulting from final consumption. In this paper, the CO2 emissions resulting from the final consumption of units are referred to as the full CO2 emission factor. The traditional method of calculating the complete CO2 emission factor is to multiply the Lycoming TIFF inverse matrix by using the direct CO2 emission factor per unit of product. The main problems of this method include: First, to ensure that the matrix is reversible and inverse matrix coefficient is non-negative; Second, the lack of statistical properties, the parameters can not be tested and interval estimation. Therefore, by using the stochastic input-output model and using the data of the output table and the usage table instead of the symmetrical input-output table, this paper calculates the unbiased estimation of the full CO2 emission coefficient of China’s product department in 2007 and obtains the emission The confidence interval of the coefficient. Compared with the traditional method, the coefficient calculated by the traditional method has a smaller overestimation. Then, the article calculates the impact of China on foreign CO2 emissions by using stochastic input-output model. The result shows that our country has less impact on foreign CO2 emissions.