本文通过美国60年季度经济收缩期固定投资需求的实证,分析了投资因素特别是住宅投资对季度经济增长的重要影响。在住宅投资及与其他固定投资间迟滞关系的实证基础上,推断了美国经济的未来走势。结论是2007年美国经济增长基本呈走弱趋势,如无有力的宏观政策刺激,有可能出现季度性经济收缩 This paper analyzes the important influence of investment factors, especially residential investment, on the quarterly economic growth through empirical evidence of the demand for fixed investment in the economic contraction period of the 60-year quarter of the United States. Based on the empirical evidence of the relationship between residential investment and lagging relations with other fixed investments, the future trend of the U.S. economy is inferred. The conclusion is that in 2007 the United States economic growth basically weakened trend, such as the unwilling macroeconomic policy stimulus, there may be quarterly economic contraction