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为了探讨长期经济增长的外生性问题,本文利用Mankiw,Romer和Weil(1992)提出的实证分析框架来检验平衡增长路径下的经济增长模型,借助这个框架重新考察了索洛增长模型中的变量,并对几个简单的内生增长模型和TFP增长率进行了估计。根据对模型和增长率的估算结果得出本文的主要结论,即长期经济增长与储蓄率等行为变量显著相关,而这种相关性很难由外生增长模型来解释。因此,未来的实证研究方向应主要集中于对内生增长模型的探讨。
In order to explore the exogenous problem of long-term economic growth, this paper uses the empirical analysis framework proposed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) to test the economic growth model under the path of balanced growth. With this framework, we reexamine the variables in the Solow growth model, Several simple endogenous growth models and TFP growth rates were estimated. According to the model and growth rate estimation results, the main conclusion of this paper is that the long-term economic growth and the savings rate and other behavioral variables are significantly related, and this correlation is difficult to explain by the exogenous growth model. Therefore, the future empirical research should focus on the discussion of the endogenous growth model.