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本文利用1995~2011年中国产品出口SITC五位编码数据,测算了二元边际对中国不同生产要素密集型产品出口增长的贡献率。结果显示,所有类别产品的出口增长都主要是沿着集约边际实现的,并且对其越来越依赖。其中,集约边际贡献最大的为劳动密集型产品,最小的是人力资本密集型产品。在此基础上,对各类产品出口二元边际影响因素的实证分析结果表明:进口国经济规模越大,无论对于中国出口的现有产品和新产品都有更多的需求,但对于前者需求强度更大;同时,虚拟变量的回归结果表明随着贸易成本的降低,各类出口产品都更趋向于单一化而不是多样化。
In this paper, we use the five-digit SITC data of China’s product exports from 1995 to 2011 to estimate the contribution rate of dual margins to the export growth of China’s different factor-intensive products. The results show that the export growth of all categories of products is mainly realized along the intensive margin and is increasingly dependent on it. Among them, the labor-intensive products are the most intensive marginal contributions, the smallest is the human capital-intensive products. On this basis, the empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the dual marginal product exports shows that the larger the economies of the importing countries, the greater the demand for both the existing and the new products exported by China. However, While the regression results of the dummy variables show that with the reduction of trade costs, all kinds of export products tend to be more single rather than diversified.