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为了真实地反映中立者延迟决策行为对舆论传播的影响,建立了相应的元胞自动机舆论传播模型。通过数值模拟研究了系统的演化趋势及形态、反对者与赞同者的初始比例等因素对中立者态度改变的影响。研究结果表明:新模型能够展现“物以类聚、人以群分”的社会现象;当中立者人数较多时,其最终的决策行为会对系统的演化结果起到关键作用;当系统初态的反对者和赞同者数量上存在“两极分化”时,中立者容易改变自身的态度,呈现跟风“随大流”的趋势,而当系统初态的反对者和赞同者数量上存在“实力均衡”时,中立者不易改变自身的态度。
In order to truly reflect the influence of neutral decision-making delay on the spread of public opinion, a corresponding cellular automata media propagation model is established. By numerical simulation, we study the influence of the system’s evolution tendency and shape, the initial ratio of opponent and approver on the change of attitudes towards neutrals. The results show that the new model can show the social phenomenon of “the objects are clustered and the people are grouped together.” When the number of neutrals is large, the final decision-making behavior will play a key role in the evolution of the system. When the initial state of the system Neutrals tend to change their attitudes and follow the trend of following the trend with the trend of “follow the crowd” when there is a “polarization” of the number of opponents and approvers. When the numbers of opponents and approvers of the initial state of the system exist “Balance of power ”, neutrals are not easy to change their own attitude.