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当前时期周期类与消费类的估值比较,直接影响着我们对长期投资方向的战略思考。在选择投资方向时,投资机构发现他们实际面对着一个选择的窘境:究竟是周期性行业由于估值低廉更具吸引力,还是非周期性行业应享有高溢价而更具魅力?券商、基金等机构投资者似乎由此出现分野,一类持续坚定地看好上游投资品,另一类则转而在“抗周期”的消费类中掘金。究竟如何借鉴国际经验,结合中国特有的产业格局与增长模式,对两类不同性质的行业和企业进行估值比较?为此,我们特约汉唐证券周金涛研究员与国泰君安陈亮研究员,对这一问题进行深入的探讨。
The comparison between the valuation of the cyclical and consumer sectors in the current period has a direct impact on our strategic thinking on the long-term investment direction. Investors find they actually face the dilemma of a choice when it comes to investing: whether the cyclical sector is more attractive due to lower valuations, or whether the cyclical industry should enjoy a premium and attractive? Brokers, funds Institutional investors seem to be divided by this, one is the continued strong optimistic about the upstream investment products, the other is turned to the “anti-cyclical” consumer Nuggets. How do we learn from international experience and combine with China’s unique industrial pattern and growth model to compare the valuation of two types of industries and enterprises of different nature? For this reason, we, Professor Zhou Jintao, a fellow of Han and Tang Dynasties, and researcher Guotai Junan and Chen Liang, Problems in-depth discussion.