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回归分析法是较常用的一种数理统计预报方法,使用比较简便。本文在对我省丰城县近21年(1957—1977年)三化螟虫情及气象等实测资料,经过成因分析及相关系数检验,找出影响螟情主要因子的基础上,应用回归分析法(包括一元、多元、逐步回归),初步作出了用于丰城及附近地区的三化螟预测式(数学模式)14个,其中发生期预测式10个(短期1个,中期8个,长期1个),发生量及螟害趋势预测式4个(中长期)。
Regression analysis is a more commonly used mathematical statistics and forecasting method, the use of more simple. In this paper, Fengcheng County in our province for nearly 21 years (1957-1977 years) and other meteorological and other pests on the measured data, after a causal analysis and correlation coefficient test to identify the main factors affecting the situation of insects on the basis of the application of regression analysis (Including one yuan, multiple yuan and gradual return), 14 preliminary forecasting (mathematical models) for the stem borer (Chilo suppressalis) in Fengcheng and its neighboring areas were made initially, of which 10 were predicted (short term 1, mid term 8, long term 1), the amount of occurrence and the risk of pest damage prediction 4 (long-term).