英国脱欧暴露市场参与者普遍预期失误纵览脱欧派在英国全民公投中胜出全程,给我印象最深的是什么?不是什么“民粹主义”狂欢,也不是英国脱欧可能的经济影响,而是从政治决策者、研究者到市场参与者,台面上各个方面对脱欧派可能赢得英国公投的估计实在不够充分,机构投资者尤甚。卡梅伦自不待言,当初如果不是自认为留欧派有把握在公投中取胜,他绝对不会发起这场公投。在中国学界、舆论界,以及欧美政界人士中,充斥着 British Brexit Exposure Market participants generally anticipate mistakes Overview What is impressed me most by Brexit in winning the referendum in the UK? It is not “populism” or the possible economic impact of Brexit, But from political decision makers, researchers to market participants, the estimates of the possibility of the Brexit won the British referendum in all aspects of the council are not sufficient, especially for institutional investors. Cameron goes without saying that if he did not consider himself the European reserve to win in the referendum, he would never launch this referendum. Among Chinese academics, media circles, and politicians in Europe and the United States, they are flooded with