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2013年,中国经济形势将略好于2012年,但回升幅度非常有限,预计GDP同比增长8.0%。三大类成品油需求量将达到2.65亿吨,同比增速为5.6%,其中汽油需求同比增速回落至5.8%,柴油需求增速回升至5.1%,煤油需求增长8.4%。2013年替代燃料量将达到1120万吨,同比增长13%,但占成品油需求量的比例仍将在5%以内,对成品油市场的影响较为有限。2013年国内主营炼厂一次加工能力将出现近5年来的最大增量,按发改委统计口径(含主营炼厂和部分地炼)的炼油能力将突破5亿吨/年,国内成品油产量预计达到2.68亿吨,高于需求量约300万吨,市场供需保持宽平衡状态。
In 2013, the economic situation in China will be slightly better than in 2012, but the recovery rate is very limited. GDP is expected to increase by 8.0% over the same period last year. The demand for refined oil in the three major categories will reach 265 million tons, an increase of 5.6% over the same period of last year. The demand for gasoline will drop to 5.8% from the same period of last year. The demand for diesel will increase 5.1%. The demand for kerosene will increase by 8.4%. The amount of alternative fuels will reach 11.2 million tons in 2013, an increase of 13% over the same period of last year, but the proportion of the demand for refined products will remain within 5% and the impact on the refined oil products market will be limited. In 2013, the primary processing capacity of the domestic main refinery will present the largest increment in the past 5 years. According to the statistics from the NDRC (including the main refinery and partial refining), the refining capacity will exceed 500 million tons / year. The domestic refined oil output Expected to reach 268 million tons, higher than the demand of about 3 million tons, the market supply and demand to maintain a broad equilibrium.