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运用非线性平滑转换模型(STR)研究了我国1953-2011年的城市化与能源消费之间的动态非线性关系。研究结果发现,城市化的变动对于能源消费变动的影响是非线性的,其关系适合使用LSTR2模型来拟合,当城市化下降较快(下降速度高于2.388%)或者上升较快(上升速度高于15.3684%)时,城市化对于能源消费的非线性影响就会显现,此时城市化变动1%会引起当期能源消费变动10.5912%。
This paper studies the dynamic nonlinear relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1953 to 2011 by using the nonlinear smooth transition model (STR). The results show that the effect of urbanization on the change of energy consumption is nonlinear, and the relationship is fit to fit using LSTR2 model. When the urbanization declines rapidly (the rate of decline is higher than 2.388%) or rises rapidly (the rate of increase is high At 15.3684%), the nonlinear effect of urbanization on energy consumption will appear. At this time, a change of 1% in urbanization will cause 10.5912% change in current energy consumption.