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文章基于小波降噪法估计中国1986至2014年工业产出缺口,并预测未来两年的发展趋势,发现我国工业产出缺口呈频繁周期性波动,但波动幅度逐步减小,工业产出缺口在短期上涨后,将出现持续下滑的波动周期。利用估计的工业产出缺口,分析各内生因素对我国产出缺口的影响,发现技术进步对我国工业产出缺口影响最大,金融发展次之,国际资本因素与人力资本投入影响较弱。这表明,即使我国工业产出缺口出现连续正值,可能也无需实施紧缩的政策来缩小产出缺口。
Based on the wavelet denoising method to estimate the industrial output gap in China from 1986 to 2014, and forecast the development trend in the next two years, we find that the industrial output gap in our country fluctuated frequently but fluctuated gradually but the industrial output gap was Short-term rise, there will be continuous decline in the volatility cycle. Using the estimated industrial output gap, we analyze the impact of each endogenous factor on the output gap in our country. We find that technological progress has the greatest impact on China’s industrial output gap, followed by financial development, and international capital and human capital inputs have a weak impact. This shows that even if there is a continuous positive sign of China’s industrial output gap, it may not be necessary to implement a tightening policy to narrow the output gap.