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本文应用大系统随机控制理论,提出了面临时段有径流预报且预报可信度高,和无径流预报或预报可信度差时,水电站群长期优化调度随机递阶控制方法。它不仅可同时考虑水电站群入库径流、水库蓄放水序列间的时空随机相关,避免了“维数灾”,而且给出了简单易行的水库群最优放水决策规则,以便对水电站水库群调度实现计算机控制。算例表明,该法是解决入库径流、水库蓄放水时空随机相关多目标多水库非线性优化调度问题的一条新途径。
In this paper, the stochastic control theory of large-scale system is used to propose a stochastic hierarchical control method for long-term optimal operation of hydropower stations in the face of high runoff forecasting in the period and high forecasting credibility and no runoff forecasting or forecasting credibility. It can not only consider both the runoff of reservoirs in reservoir and the spatiotemporal correlation between reservoirs and reservoirs, but also avoid the “dimensionality disaster” and give the simple and easy decision rule of optimal discharge of reservoirs, Scheduling to achieve computer control. The example shows that this method is a new way to solve the problem of non-linear optimal scheduling of multi-objective multi-reservoir with spatiotemporal stochastic correlation in reservoir runoff and reservoir storage and discharge.