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基于Logistic模型,对中国城市化发展趋势进行了预测,运用LMDI模型分解分析在城市化快速发展阶段中国碳排放量持续增长的原因,对城市化进程的碳排放增量进行了测算。研究结果表明:中国城市化水平仍将处于加速发展的上升期,2020年、2040年中国城市化水平将分别提升至61.63%、77.91%;未来中国城市化进程对碳排放仍将保持增长态势,但对碳排放的驱动作用呈减缓态势;经济规模是推动中国碳排放持续增长的主导因素,城市化是导致碳排放增加的重要因素,而能源强度则是促进碳排放减少的主要动力。
Based on the Logistic model, this paper forecasts the trend of urbanization in China, analyzes the reasons for the continuous increase of carbon emissions in China during the rapid urbanization stage by means of LMDI model decomposition, and calculates the increment of urbanization carbon emissions. The results show that: China’s urbanization level will still be in a period of accelerating development. By 2020, urbanization in China will increase to 61.63% and 77.91% respectively in 2040; in the future, urbanization in China will still maintain its growth momentum in carbon emissions, However, the driving effect on carbon emissions has been slowing down; the economic scale is the dominant factor driving China’s sustained carbon emissions growth. Urbanization is an important factor leading to increased carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the main driving force for reducing carbon emissions.