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研究水资源系统脆弱性有助于水资源可持续利用的实现,结合驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(DPSIR)框架构建了水资源系统脆弱性评价指标体系,利用混合蛙跳算法和投影寻踪方法建立了基于混合蛙跳和投影寻踪的水资源系统脆弱性评价模型,以山东省滕州市为研究区,分别从驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应5个方面及系统整体进行了水资源系统脆弱性评价,并以模型计算的投影值作为衡量系统脆弱程度的依据。结果表明,该区2008年水资源系统指标体系各方面与整体均处于脆弱性中等范围,其中水资源供需矛盾不断加剧及水资源开发利用条件薄弱导致影响、状态两方面脆弱性程度较高,依靠科技进步措施使得响应类指标对脆弱性影响程度较低,与实际情况相符,可见该模型评价结果可行、有效。
Researching on the vulnerability of water resources system contributes to the realization of sustainable water resources utilization. Based on DPSIR framework, this paper constructs a water resources system vulnerability assessment index system using mixed frog leap algorithm and projection The tracing method was used to establish a vulnerability assessment model of water resources system based on hybrid frog leaping and projection pursuit. Taking Tengzhou City of Shandong Province as the research area, the five aspects of driving force-pressure-state-impact-response and the system as a whole The assessment of vulnerability of water resources system, and projection of the model calculated as the basis for measuring the degree of vulnerability of the system. The results show that in all aspects of the indicator system of water resources system in 2008, the area is in the mid-range of vulnerability. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the weak conditions of development and utilization of water resources lead to a high degree of vulnerability. The measures of scientific and technological progress made the impact of response indicators on vulnerability lower, which is consistent with the actual situation. It can be seen that the model evaluation results are feasible and effective.