前言 预测是一个十分有趣的活动,也是难以要求十分准确的活动,尤其是在日新月异地变化中的信息产业。但预测是有意义的,它展示了未来的发展趋势,凡尔纳预测了百年后飞机与潜艇的出现都是明证。在预言家中,既有像诺查丹马斯这样预测地球毁灭的悲观者,又有像尼格洛庞帝这样认为中国的上网人数将在这个世纪内过亿的 Foreword Prediction is a very interesting activity that is difficult to ask for very accurate activities, especially in a rapidly changing information industry. But predictions make sense, as it shows future trends and Verne predicts the appearance of aircraft and submarines a century from now. Among the prophets, there are pessimists predicting the destruction of the Earth like Nostradamus and the billions of people who think China’s Internet users will spend in this century like Negroponte