对给定的地点,可应用几种定型的模型正确地预报潮位。然而,在风暴条件下,潮位的观测值和预报值之间存在着差值,这个差值称作风暴潮。对位于塞纳河河口的勒阿弗尔港,同时用二种风暴潮预报模型:自回归模型和一种需用当地风、气压资料的模型。 自回归模型能用来作时效为5小时的预报;用勒阿弗尔气象台36小时内的风,气压的预报值,便可用第二种预报模型,给出39小时时效的风暴潮预报。 For a given location, several stylized models can be used to correctly predict the tide level. However, under storm conditions, there is a difference between the observed and predicted tide levels, a difference called the storm surge. For the port of Le Havre on the Seine estuary, two storm surge prediction models are used: an autoregressive model and a model that uses local wind and pressure data. The autoregressive model can be used to forecast the time-lapse of 5 hours. Using the forecast data of wind and pressure within 36 hours of Le Havre Weather Station, the second forecast model can be used to predict the storm surge of 39 hours.