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为定量评估配电网运行状态不确定性条件下强不确定因素对各节点电压的不确定性影响边界,该文从线性建模的角度出发,提出一种用于电压不确定水平分析的区间线性模型.首先,利用虚拟期望运行点与仿射潮流估计不确定因素作用下的节点电压响应区间,进而构造出回归分析样本用于区间线性模型的参数辨识.然后,针对区间回归分析保守性的不同要求,分别建立了基于二次规划与基于随机规划的两种参数求解模型.最后,采用IEEE 33节点与实际113节点配电系统验证了所提区间线性模型及求解方法的有效性,且验证结果表明所提模型能准确评估出运行状态多不确定性条件下不确定因素对节点电压的影响边界.“,”In order to quantitatively assess the influence boundary of uncertainties on node voltage under the uncertainty of distribution network operating status, a new analysis model with interval linear regression was proposed in this paper from the perspective of the linear quantitative description. To obtain the model parameters defined as the voltage influence intervals, an analysis sample collection was conducted by the interval-affine power flow and virtual expected operating point. Then, according to the different requirements of interval linear regression, two kinds of parameter solving models based on quadratic programming and stochastic programming were established respectively. The verification results based on IEEE 33-bus test system and practical 113-bus system demonstrate the validity of interval linear analysis model and its solution method. The proposed model has an excellent performance and be of high accuracy in assessing the influence boundary of uncertainties on node voltage under the uncertainty of operating status.