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目的估算中国人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数。方法采用中国人群肝癌性别-年龄组别基线发病率,估算中国人群肝癌性别-年龄别发病率。应用人群间危险转移方法,以日本原子弹爆炸幸存者终生寿命研究(LSS)辐射致肝癌危险模型数据为基础,采用辐射致肝癌危险转移模型(选用相乘相加混合转移模型,算数尺度下,相乘和相加模型的权重分别为0.7和0.3),估算中国人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数。结果通过估算可获得中国人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数;其呈现受照年龄越小,患癌年龄越小,则该危险系数越大的特征。以30岁受照,60岁患癌为例,中国男性和女性人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数分别为0.29/Sv和0.32/Sv。结论通过估算获得的中国人群辐射致肝癌危险系数与日本原子弹爆炸幸存者LSS人群的有差异,但两者随性别-年龄变化趋势相同。
Objective To estimate the risk factors of liver cancer caused by radiation of age-related age-sex in Chinese population. Methods The baseline incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese population was used to estimate the gender-age-related incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese population. Based on the risk transfer model of liver cancer caused by the Japan Life Assay Survivor Lifetime Life Study (LSS) radiation, the risk transfer model of liver cancer (using multiplicative and additive mixed transfer model, Multiplication and addition model weights of 0.7 and 0.3, respectively), to estimate the Chinese population sex - age of exposure - age-related cancer risk of radiation-induced liver cancer risk factor. Results The risk coefficient of hepatocellular carcinoma caused by sex-age of exposure-age-matched cancer in China could be obtained by estimation. The risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma was younger when exposed to cancer and younger when cancer was older. Taking 30-year-old and 60-year-olds as an example, the risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma caused by gender-age-and-age at different ages in China were 0.29 / Sv and 0.32 / Sv, respectively. Conclusions The risk coefficient of hepatocellular carcinoma induced by Chinese population radiation is different from that of Japanese atomic bomb survivor LSS population estimated by the estimation, but both have the same gender-age trend.