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根据中国甘肃省近3000年干旱、饥荒、虫害的历史资料,系统研究了甘肃省干旱的历史发生规律及其产生的影响。结果显示:甘肃省历史时期旱灾频繁且有愈演愈烈的趋势,干旱与饥荒存在较为明显的正相关,干旱引发的虫害也会加重饥荒,同时,由干旱引发的一系列问题会导致社会秩序的不稳定,在古代就表现为朝代的更替及战争。作者建议,随着全球气候变暖,甘肃省的生计将受到更加严重的影响,气候变化导致的贫困问题会进一步加剧,社区应对气候变化的政策措施需要决策机构给予尽早关注。
According to the historical data of drought, famine and pest in the past 3000 years in Gansu Province of China, the history of drought in Gansu Province and its impact are systematically studied. The results showed that there were frequent and intensified droughts in historical periods in Gansu Province, with a clear positive correlation between drought and famine, as well as increased pests caused by drought. In the meantime, a series of problems caused by drought led to the instability of social order , In ancient times showed the replacement of the dynasties and war. The author suggests that with the global warming, the livelihood of Gansu will be more seriously affected. The problem of poverty caused by climate change will be further aggravated. Policies and measures of the community to address climate change will need to be given early attention by decision-making bodies.