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采用非随机化 -区域控制模拟试验方案 ,对江西柘林水库区域 (1979～ 1982 )飞机人工增雨作业结果进行重新评价 ;通过与其它非随机化试验方案比较 ,区域控制模拟试验方案能够客观定量反映出柘林水库飞机人工增雨作业实际结果 ,是一种比较理想的人工增雨效果检验方法。分析结果表明 ,每次飞机人工增雨作业平均增雨量1.37mm/4 h,相对增雨率 2 4.92 % (α<0 .0 5 ) ;经准确度比较 ,区域控制模拟试验方案产生的假效果为 0 .5 3% ,属最小 ;而序列试验、区域对比试验、历史回归试验产生的假效果分别为 9.89%、- 19.5 2 %、9.5 8%。
The non-randomized-regional control simulation test scheme was used to reassess the aircraft’s artificial precipitation increase in the area from 1993 to 1982 in Jiangxi Province. By comparison with other non-randomized experimental schemes, the regional control simulation experiment program can objectively quantify Reflecting the actual results of artificial rainfall enhancement operation of Zhelin reservoir aircraft is an ideal method to test artificial rainfall enhancement effect. The results show that the average rainfall increase of 1.37mm / 4h and the relative rainfall rate of 2.92% (α <0. 05) for each artificial precipitation increase operation of the aircraft; the false effect caused by the regional control simulation test program Was 0.53%, which was the smallest. However, the false effect of sequence test, regional comparison test and historical regression test were 9.89%, -19.5% and 9.5% respectively.