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文章考察了近些年来中国经常账户出现的持续顺差现象。文章在参考国外已有相关研究文献的基础上,构建了一个以中国经常账户实际值按与其标准误偏离程度排序作为离散因变量、以八个宏观经济变量和三个时期虚拟变量为解释变量的排序Probit模型。通过计量分析和计算,我们发现仅有两个宏观经济变量的冲击(产出缺口和滞后的净外部资产头寸增量)对中国经常账户顺差规模波动排序具有显著的解释能力,二者均为正向作用,且后者的影响力大于前者;另外,两个时期虚拟变量(中国加入WTO和2005年7月“新汇改”)在回归分析中也表现出较强的解释力。最后,文章据此提出了一些政策调整建议。
The paper examines the persistent surpluses in China’s current account in recent years. On the basis of referring to the relevant research literature abroad, the article constructs a ranking of the actual value of China’s current account deviation from its standard deviation as discrete dependent variable, eight macroeconomic variables and three periods of dummy variables as explanatory variables Sort Probit model. Through the econometric analysis and calculation, we find that the impact of only two macroeconomic variables (output gap and lagging net external asset position increment) has significant explanatory power on the volatility order of China’s current account surplus, both of which are positive And the influence of the latter is greater than that of the former. In addition, the dummy variables in the two periods (China’s accession to the WTO and July 2005, “Xinhui Reform”) also show strong explanatory power in the regression analysis. Finally, the article put forward some policy adjustment suggestions.