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本文采用河南2006年第1季度至2012年第2季度的数据,运用VAR模型对河南省大额支付系统与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明河南省大额支付资金流动和经济增长之间具有长期的均衡关系,且存在单项因果关系,根据脉冲分析,资金流入在两个滞后期后对经济增长产生助推作用。通过支付信息与经济增长运行关系分析,可发挥现代支付系统对经济活动的有效监控和分析功能,为央行货币政策制定和调整提供有效支持。
This paper uses the data from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2012 in Henan Province and makes an empirical study on the relationship between the large-scale payment system and economic growth in Henan Province using VAR model. The results show that large-scale payment of capital flows and economic growth There is a long-term equilibrium relationship, and there is a single causal relationship. According to the impulse analysis, capital inflows have a positive effect on economic growth after two lags. By analyzing the relationship between payment information and economic growth, the modern payment system can effectively monitor and analyze economic activities and provide effective support for the central bank’s monetary policy formulation and adjustment.