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炸药驱动飞片实验作为检验炸药爆轰能力的基准实验,在爆轰领域应用广泛,但由于炸药反应迅速、剧烈、不易测量,能够根据现有信息预测炸药驱动飞片实验效果极为重要.然而由于爆轰系统中不确定参数众多,尤其对于精确描述爆轰驱动过程与做功能力都至关重要的爆轰产物状态方程不确定参数,需要量化其不确定性,及不确定性对最终计算结果的影响,才能做出有效预测.本文聚焦JWL状态方程参数,从不确定度量化角度出发,综合利用实验数据与现有数值模拟数据,基于贝叶斯思想量化给出其后验分布.并针对炸药LX-17,评估参数不确定度对整体计算结果的影响,利用参数后验分布预测不同长度飞片与炸药的驱动效果,并评估预测结果不确定度.本文不仅描述了不确定性从状态参数到最终爆轰驱动能力的传播规律,还预测了不同条件下炸药驱动飞片的能力,及其不确定度,为分析不确定度在爆轰系统中的传播特征,提出模拟爆轰驱动的高置信度计算方法,降低系统整体不确定度奠定了基础,也为通过数值实验预测未知爆轰实验效果提出新的方法思路.
As a benchmark experiment to test the detonation ability of explosives, explosives-driven flyer experiment has been widely used in detonation field. However, it is very important to predict the effect of explosives-driven flyer on the basis of available information because explosives react rapidly, violently and hard to measure. However, There are many uncertain parameters in the detonation system. Especially for the uncertain parameters of the equation of state of detonation products, which are very important to accurately describe the detonation process and work capability, we need to quantify the uncertainty and uncertainty of the final calculation results , This paper focuses on the parameters of JWL equation of state, and from the point of view of uncertainty, the experimental data and the existing numerical simulation data are comprehensively used, and the posterior distribution is given based on Bayesian thought quantification. Explosive LX-17 was used to evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the overall calculation results, and the posterior distribution of parameters was used to predict the driving effects of different lengths of flyers and explosives, and to evaluate the uncertainty of forecast results.In this paper, Parameters to the final detonation driving ability of the propagation law, but also predicted under different conditions explosive-driven flyer capacity, and its uncertainty In order to analyze the propagation characteristics of uncertainty in detonation system, a high-confidence calculation method for simulating detonation is proposed, which lays the foundation for reducing the overall uncertainty of the system and proposes a new method for predicting the effect of unknown detonation by numerical experiments Way of thinking.