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我国的地震区划工作已经历了两个阶段,均是用确定性方法完成的。鉴于地震的发生和地震动的特性都具有随机性因素,迄今还不能作出精确的预测,必须用可靠性理论的方法予以解决,应该在概率含义上进行地震区划。就当前工程地震学的发展水平来看,应运用地震危险性分析的科学思路和分析方法来编制我国新的区划图,但仍需要做必要的改进,使之更适合于我国的具体情况。如果组织协调得当,可望于1990年编制出全国新的区划图。
The seismic zoning work in our country has gone through two stages, all of which are done by a certainty method. In view of the occurrence of earthquakes and the characteristics of ground motions have random factors, so far can not make accurate predictions, the method must be used to solve the reliability theory, should be carried out in the sense of the meaning of seismic zoning. Seen from the current level of development of engineering seismology, we should use the scientific thinking and analysis methods of seismic hazard analysis to compile our new zoning map, but still need to make the necessary improvements to make it more suitable for the specific situation in our country. With a well-coordinated organization, it is expected that a new national zoning map will be prepared in 1990.