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同城快递的发展使得下游代理商采用以便捷运输代替库存的方式来减少订货量,这使上游服务集成商的订货预测失真并导致缺货,形成现实中的“逆向牛鞭效应”。为解决这个问题,本文以一个两阶段的备件服务供应链系统为背景,引入惩罚系数α和激励系数β,并考虑备件生命周期末期带来的价值损失,研究了引入奖惩机制前后的订货决策问题。研究结论采用企业的相关数据进行仿真分析,证明了引入惩罚奖励机制将有效地缓解“逆向牛鞭效应”并优化其相关收益。
The development of courier in the city makes the downstream agents reduce the order quantity by replacing the inventory by the convenient transportation, which distorts the order forecast of the upstream service integrators and leads to the stock shortage, thus forming a real “reverse bullwhip effect”. In order to solve this problem, this paper introduces penalty coefficient α and incentive coefficient β based on a two-stage spare parts service supply chain system, and considers the loss of value brought by the end of the lifecycle of spare parts. It also studies the decision-making problems before and after the introduction of reward and punishment mechanism . The conclusion of the research uses the data of enterprises to carry on the simulation analysis, and proves that introducing penalty reward mechanism will effectively mitigate “reverse bullwhip effect ” and optimize its related benefits.