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文章运用1981～2006年的时间序列数据,对我国货物及工业制成品价格贸易条件恶化的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:人民币汇率的低估、实际资本存量的迅速增加和国内生产对国际市场的依赖程度加深是我国贸易条件恶化的Granger原因。文章据此认为,宏观经济内部失衡,投资率过高消费率偏低,生产能力相对过剩,迫使企业低价出口,是我国价格贸易条件恶化的主要原因。
Using the time series data from 1981 to 2006, the article makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the deterioration of the terms of trade of goods and manufactured goods in China. The results show that the undervaluation of RMB exchange rate, the rapid increase of real capital stock and the deepening dependence of domestic production on the international market are the Granger causes of the deteriorating terms of trade in our country. Based on the above, the author believes that the main reason for the worsening of terms of price trade in our country is the imbalance in the macro economy, the high investment rate, the low consumption rate and the relative surplus production capacity, forcing the enterprises to export at a low price.