笔者曾对1100～1976年间全世界经受水灾、地震等自然灾害的16个城市市区的死亡率和恢复时间作过分析,得到的结论是:死亡率和恢复时间随时间的变化规律相似;1920年代以前,人类减灾能力极低,两者皆呈上升趋势,1775年伊朗卡香地震死亡率高达75％,一般要历经40～85年才能恢复到 The author has analyzed the mortality and recovery time of 16 urban areas in the world that suffered natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes from 1100 to 1976 and concluded that the changes of mortality and recovery time with time are similar. Before the age, the human ability to reduce the disaster was extremely low, both of which showed an upward trend. In 1775, the death toll of the Kajang earthquake in Iran was as high as 75%, and it generally took 40 to 85 years to recover