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未来中国的经济表现更有可能落在第二或第四象限,即可能会出现非系统性的信用风险,经济的局部领域存在去杠杆的压力,但是这仅仅会影响到总体加杠杆进程的快与慢,而不能扭转加杠杆的趋势。如何看待当前中国杠杆率水平?在当前杠杆率水平下是否一定会经历去杠杆乃至爆发系统性危机?这是目前各方面讨论并判断中国经济走势绕不开的话题。我们对二战以来各国债务周期的梳理发现,在大规模信贷扩张(加杠杆)之后通常会
In the future, China’s economic performance is more likely to fall on the second or fourth quadrant, that is, there may be unsystematic credit risks and the deleveraging pressure in some economic sectors, but this will only affect the overall plus leverage process And slow, but can not reverse the trend of adding leverage. How to treat the current level of leverage in China? Will the current level of leverage be experiencing deleveraging and even systemic crises? This is currently all aspects of discussion and judgment of the Chinese economy can not be detached topic. Our review of the debt cycle of countries since the Second World War found that after large-scale credit expansion (plus leverage)