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为了研究煤层注水过程中可靠度随时间的变化规律,运用多层流模型对煤层注水系统进行建模,描述了目标和功能之间的相互关系。应用基于多层流模型的系统可靠性分析(MRA)方法中时间点和随时间失效概念,将煤层注水过程划分为若干时间段,时间间隔设置为4 h,计算出系统和子系统在各个时间点的可靠度;运用多项式拟合和指数拟合并进行误差分析,得出多项式拟合效果较好,通过拟合曲线方程对系统可靠度进行预测。分析表明:煤层注水过程在失效部件的影响下,系统可靠度按照时间的四次多项式的规律变化。基于多层流模型的系统可靠性分析方法,可以在不同抽象层次上表达系统知识,有利于发现系统的薄弱环节,在对系统预测和设备维护管理中具有较高的应用价值。
In order to study the variation law of reliability with time in water injection process of coal seam, the multi-layer flow model was used to model the water injection system of coal seam, and the interrelationship between the target and the function was described. Applying the concept of time point and failure with time in the system reliability analysis (MRA) method based on multi-layer flow model, the process of waterflooding in coal seam is divided into several time periods and the time interval is set to 4 h. The system and subsystem are calculated at each time point The polynomial fitting and exponential fitting were used to carry out error analysis. The polynomial fitting result was better and the reliability of the system was predicted by the fitted curve equation. The analysis shows that under the influence of the failure components, the system reliability changes according to the law of quadratic polynomial of time. The method of system reliability analysis based on multi-layer flow model can express system knowledge at different levels of abstraction, find out the weak links of the system and have high application value in system prediction and equipment maintenance and management.