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经济周期波动是一种客观存在的经济现象,为适应经济周期波动,理财策略也应呈现出周期性特征。理财策略的创新离不开对财务环境的监测和对财务风险的预警。财务预警系统是中西方财务理论界探索性、前沿性理论研究的课题。从时间层面分析,财务出现风险或危机必然会经历一个顺序的发展阶段:第一阶段为潜伏期;第二阶段为发作期;第三阶段为恶化期。伴随着这三个阶段的财务预警系统,分别称为财务先导预警系统,财务同步预警系统和财务滞后预警系统。从时间层面上的分析以定性分析为主,主要研究财务预警警兆识别系统。对“潜伏期”的研究具有先导性,可以使财务风险在“发作”之前就得到分析识别和监测,为控制财务风险、有效利用资金和引导企业财务向有利方向发展奠定坚实基础。介于篇幅,本文先仅对财务风险的“潜伏期”进行研究。
Economic cycle fluctuations is an objective economic phenomenon. In order to adapt to the economic cycle, the strategy of financial management should also exhibit periodic characteristics. Financial strategy innovation is inseparable from the monitoring of the financial environment and early warning of financial risks. Financial early warning system is the subject of exploratory and cutting-edge theoretical research in both western and Chinese financial theory circles. From the time level analysis, the financial risk or crisis is bound to go through a sequence of stages of development: the first phase of the incubation period; the second phase of the attack; the third phase of the deterioration. With these three stages of the financial early warning system, respectively, known as the financial pilot warning system, financial synchronization early warning system and financial lag warning system. The analysis from the time level mainly focuses on the qualitative analysis, and mainly studies the warning early warning sign recognition system. The research on “incubation period” has a leading role. It can make the financial risk be analyzed, identified and monitored before the “attack”, laying a solid foundation for controlling the financial risk, making effective use of funds and guiding the corporate finance to a favorable direction. Due to the length of space, this article first studies only the “latency” of financial risk.