论文部分内容阅读
基于目前农业水土资源潜力分别测算、相互割裂的实际情况,论文在限定农业水土资源匹配指数概念的基础上,综合考虑气候、种植结构和灌溉效率等的变化对区域需水的影响,提出了以水土资源匹配指数为核心的区域农业水土资源潜力估算方法,根据区域农业水土资源估算方法之需,构建了区域经济、社会、生态效益和水土资源匹配指数最优的多目标水土资源优化配置模型。以内蒙古河套灌区为例,选取2010年为现状年,估算了河套灌区2020、2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5两种情景下的农业水土资源利用潜力,实现了河套灌区水土资源利用潜力的可视化表达。结果表明2020和2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5排放情景下,河套灌区整体的经济效益、生态效益和综合效益都有所增加,社会效益有增有减,水土资源利用潜力均为正值,单位面积上的利用潜力值依次分别为:0.18×104、0.04×104、0.51×104、0.10×104元/hm2;同时除了解放闸灌域,其他各灌域的农业水土资源利用潜力均为正值,在0.31×104~8.24×104元之间,单位综合效益相对2010年均有所提高。
Based on the current situation of calculating the potential of agricultural land and water resources separately and the situation of mutual fragmentation, the paper, on the basis of defining the concept of matching index of agricultural land and water resources, considering the influence of climate, planting structure and irrigation efficiency on regional water demand, According to the needs of regional agricultural water and soil resources estimation, a multi-objective optimization model of water and land resources with regional economic, social and ecological benefits and the matching index of land and water resources is established. Taking Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia as an example, we selected 2010 as the status quo year and estimated the potentiality of agricultural land and water use in Hetao Irrigation District in 2020, 2030 RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, and visualized the potentiality of water and soil resources utilization in Hetao Irrigation District. The results show that under the scenarios of RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emissions from 2020 and 2030, the overall economic benefits, ecological benefits and overall benefits of Hetao Irrigation District have increased, social benefits have increased and decreased, and the potential for utilization of water and land resources has been positive. The unit area On the potential use of the value were: 0.18 × 104,0.04 × 104,0.51 × 104,0.10 × 104 yuan / hm2; at the same time in addition to the liberation of irrigation, other irrigated irrigated land use potential of agricultural land and water resources are positive, In 0.31 × 104 ~ 8.24 × 104 yuan, the unit of comprehensive benefits relative to 2010 increased.