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目前中国大陆经济发展是围绕在国内改革以及其与国际社会的互动关系这两大主轴议题上。未来中国大陆与全球经济互动大致有3种可能情境,本文认为中国大陆未来的经济发展朝向其中的最佳情境(新丝路)的可能性最高。中国大陆经济明显步入新常态,从最近公布的《十三五规划建议》来看,官方将2016年至2020年的经济增长目标定在6.5%的底线,这与过去几年动辄两位数的经济增长比较起来明显降温。尽管如此,中国
At present, the economic development in Mainland China revolves around these two major axes: domestic reform and its interaction with the international community. In the future, there are roughly three possible scenarios for the interaction between the Mainland China and the global economy. This paper argues that the future economic development in Mainland China is most likely to be the best scenario (the new Silk Road) among them. The economy of mainland China has obviously stepped into the new normal. According to the recently released “13th Five-Year Plan and Proposal”, the official target of economic growth between 2016 and 2020 is set at the bottom line of 6.5%, which is in line with the double digits of the past few years The economic growth has obviously cooled down. Nevertheless, China